In a world where superpowers constantly jostle for influence, a new Gallup poll has dropped a quiet bombshell. For the first time in nearly two decades, China’s global approval rating has edged past that of the United States.
According to the 2025 World Poll data released this week, China’s median leadership approval now sits at 36 percent across more than 130 countries. The United States has slipped to 31 percent. That five-point gap might look small on paper, but it marks the widest lead China has ever held in Gallup’s long-running survey.
The shift did not happen overnight. China’s numbers have been inching upward for years, climbing from 32 percent just twelve months ago. America’s decline feels sharper by comparison, an eight-point plunge from 39 percent in 2024. Disapproval tells an even starker story. While China’s disapproval rate held steady at 37 percent, the United States hit a record 48 percent. Put another way, more people around the globe now actively dislike American leadership than at any point Gallup has measured.
Both countries find themselves in negative territory on net approval, approval minus disapproval, for the second year running. China sits at minus one. The United States stands at minus fifteen, its lowest on record. Respondents are not hedging their bets anymore. The share of people answering “no opinion” has shrunk to some of the lowest levels in twenty years. Global opinion, it seems, is hardening.
Dig a little deeper and the picture grows more nuanced. China’s gains are not exactly a wave of universal affection. Much of the support comes from a familiar cluster of countries: Russia, Pakistan, Tunisia, and Singapore. In many of those places, backing China feels less like genuine enthusiasm and more like a vote against U.S. foreign policy. On the flip side, America still commands clear majorities in traditional strongholds such as Israel, Poland, Kosovo, the Philippines, and Albania. Most nations, though, sit somewhere in the messy middle. They refuse to throw their lot fully behind either giant. Only a tiny fraction show anything close to firm allegiance. Eight percent align strongly with China, while five percent do so with the United States.
The timing adds another layer. The poll captures sentiment throughout 2025, a year that began with Donald Trump’s return to the White House and has been marked by fresh tensions in the Middle East. Trump’s postponed trip to Beijing, coming amid U.S.-Israeli friction with Iran and China’s own deepening ties to Tehran, hangs in the background. Whether those headlines directly moved the needle is impossible to say with certainty. Polls like this rarely isolate single causes. Yet they certainly did not help the American numbers.
Gallup frames the results as a milestone in soft-power competition. China’s 36 percent is above its usual low-30s range over the past two decades. The United States has simply slid back to earlier lows after a brief post-pandemic bounce. Neither superpower can claim broad global warmth. Both are now viewed more critically than favorably by the median respondent worldwide.
None of this is destiny. Public opinion polls are snapshots, not crystal balls. They reflect reactions to foreign policy choices, economic footprints, media narratives, and the daily churn of headlines more than any deep ideological conversion. A single crisis, a bold diplomatic move, or even a change in leadership can flip the script again. Still, the data offers a sobering reminder. In the contest for hearts and minds beyond their borders, neither Washington nor Beijing is winning decisively. They are both struggling to stay above water.
For anyone who follows international affairs, the takeaway is not panic or triumphalism. It is a call to pay closer attention. Global approval is not just a popularity contest. It is the quiet currency of influence, shaping alliances, trade deals, and the willingness of other nations to line up when it really matters. Right now, that currency appears to be flowing, ever so slightly, toward Beijing. Whether that current lasts or reverses will depend less on poll numbers and more on what both capitals actually do next.
